‘Second wave’ of swine flu is ebbing, health officials say

Public health officials were breathing a collective sigh of relief this week as new data shows the latest swine flu outbreak might be coming to an end.

From Nov. 7-14, the country’s sentinel health care providers reported 639,565 visits from patients complaining of an “influenza-like illness,” or the fever, headache, nausea, fatigue and general weakness common to both the swine flu and the seasonal flu. That figure represents 5.5 percent of the total
number of patients seen by those doctors across the country, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The week also marks the third in a row that the country’s total number of flu visits has fallen since Oct. 18-24, when 838,142 flu visits made up about 7.8 percent of the total patient visits sentinel providers reported that week.

“We’re probably coming off our second wave,” Stephen May, the Sullivan County Regional Health Department’s health officer, said Friday.

Though he didn’t have specific figures, May said Sullivan County also has seen a drop in its number of flu cases over the past few weeks. State health
officials in Tennessee and Virginia reported seeing a similar phenomenon.

Visits for influenza-like illnesses made up only 1.7 percent of the total patient visits to Tennessee health care providers, according to that state’s Department of Health, while they made up 4.46 percent of total patient visits the week of Oct. 18-24.

During a Thursday news conference, Virginia Health Commissioner Karen Remley said flu illness visits made up only 5 percent of her state’s total emergency room and urgent care center visits from Nov. 7-14. That’s down sharply from almost 15 percent the week of Oct. 18-24.

Yet even as they’re breathing a sigh of relief, public health officials aren’t letting themselves think that swine flu has become a thing of the past.

“I would not be surprised if there was a third wave about 10 to 12 weeks from now,” May said, adding that he expects the number of cases to increase as the traditional seasonal flu season’s peak approaches.

Almost 99 percent of the flu tests that have come back in recent weeks tested positive for the swine flu, May said.

This means the seasonal flu season has yet to begin, which gives health officials include May and Remley even more of a reason to tell everyone to get vaccinated for both the seasonal and swine flus as soon as they get a chance.

Additionally, officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued warnings over the weekend to take special care during Thanksgiving holiday, including a recommendation to stay home when sick.

Health officials are worried that family gatherings might cause a spike in flu cases.

“All the kids get together with their grandparents and there’s a lot of exchange of warmth and love, but a little exchange of viruses, too,” said Dr. Anne
Schuchat, who heads the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.

Swine flu has sickened an estimated 22 million Americans, hospitalized about 98,000 and killed 4,000 since it was first identified in April. It has proved to be similar to seasonal flu but a much bigger threat to children and young adults.

The Sullivan County Regional Department of Health will offer swine flu vaccinations to its public high school students today and Tuesday.

* Monday: Sullivan North High School, Sullivan South High School.
* Tuesday: Sullivan East High School, Sullivan Central High School.

Students must turn in a signed permission slip to participate. Those forms can be downloaded from the school system’s Web site at http://www.sullivank12.net/.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.
| (276) 645-2518