Poll Suggests Warner Holds Sizable Lead Over Gilmore

Democrat Mark Warner maintains a sizable lead – 25 percentage points – over Republican Jim Gilmore in the closing days of their race for the U.S. Senate, according a Mason-Dixon poll released Thursday.

Although that lead has shrunk from 33 points in September, Warner is still ahead in all but one category in the poll, which on Tuesday and Wednesday queried a random sampling of 625 likely voters across all of Virginia.

The poll was commissioned by several news organizations, including the Bristol Herald Courier.

In the battle of former Virginia governors trying to succeed retiring U.S. Sen. John Warner, R-Va., the results show that Gilmore leads only among respondents who identified themselves as Republicans, with 63 percent saying they would cast their vote for him if the election were today. Among those Republicans, 27 percent said they would vote for Mark Warner.

“This looks like a John Warner re-election bid, where he would typically get 60-65 percent of the vote,” J. Bradford Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon, said Thursday.  John Warner and Mark Warner are not related.

“Mark Warner had one of the highest approval ratings as governor when he left office. It helped Tim Kaine get elected governor and I think people are rewarding him,” Coker said. “Gov. Gilmore’s popularity has waned since he left office.”

Mark Warner was governor from 2002-06. Gilmore was governor from 1998-2002.

While Warner leads the U.S. Senate race in all regions of the state, nowhere is that margin greater than in Southwest Virginia, where Warner holds a 40-point edge, 66 percent to 26 percent, with 8 percent of those polled saying they remain undecided.

Warner’s support also tracked above 60 percent in northern Virginia and in Hampton Roads.

The region where the candidates are the closest is the Shenandoah Valley, where Warner leads 48 percent to 40 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

Warner is continuing his work on the campaign trail, making five stops Thursday, including a meeting with the Herald Courier editorial board and appearances in Blacksburg, Martinsville, Wise and Grundy.
“I don’t want to take anything for granted,” Warner said. “I’m not letting up. I can sleep after Nov. 4.”

Warner attributes the widespread bi-partisan support and endorsements to his record of working across the aisle while serving as governor.

“The last thing the Senate needs is another hard-core ideologue at either end of the spectrum,” Warner said. The way to solve the nation’s problems, he said, is through sensible, bi-partisan efforts, not by adhering to party lines.

“My opponent still thinks the slash and burn politics of the 1990s is what people want – and it’s not,” Warner said.

Gilmore spokeswoman Ana Gamonal, contacted by phone Thursday, said the campaign doesn’t believe the polls.

“Gov. Gilmore has been behind in every poll of every race he’s ever run here in Virginia,” Gamonal said. “The veracity of these polls is clearly in question, so he is getting his message out to voters right to the last minute.”

During a Wednesday conference call with the Herald Courier’s editorial board, Gilmore said he believes “John McCain will carry Virginia and I aim to carry Virginia.”

Gamonal said Warner is fooling Virginia voters who think he would work with a McCain administration.

“Virginia voters will decide this race, not polls and not Mark Warner,” Gamonal said.

Also in the poll results, Warner holds a 32-point lead over Gilmore in favorable name recognition, 61 percent to 29 percent. And Gilmore’s unfavorable name recognition was more than double his opponent, 36 percent to 17 percent.

Warner leads among both men and women in every age category. His greatest margin is among voters ages 18-34, with a 64-27 margin.

He also leads among whites, blacks, Democrats, Republicans and veterans.

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