Latest Mason-Dixon Poll Shows Southwest Virginia Favors McCain Over Obama

One month before the nation elects its new commander-in-chief, Southwest Virginia voters continue to favor Republican John McCain over Democrat Barack Obama by a healthy margin, according to the latest Mason-Dixon poll.

Voters in the Roanoke/Southwest region of the battleground state say they favor McCain by a margin of 54 percent to 39 percent for Obama, with 7 percent undecided, according to the poll conducted for the Bristol Herald Courier and other Media General newspapers in Virginia.

Joe Lane, professor of political science at Virginia Intermont College in Bristol, Va., said the substantial advantage currently held in the region by McCain does not necessarily indicate his overall strength statewide.

“I suspect the Obama campaign knows they won’t win here in Southwest Virginia,” he said. “The Obama campaign has spent all this time here, and it’s my opinion that he hopes to cut into the Republican stronghold just enough to make a difference in how the state vote turns out overall.” 

Since June, Obama has visited Southwest Virginia twice, while his running mate, U.S. Sen. Joe Biden, was in Castlewood, Va., last month. Neither McCain nor his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, have campaigned in Southwest Virginia.

Across the state, 48 percent of likely voters currently support McCain, while 45 percent back Obama and 7 percent remain undecided, according to a telephone survey of 625 registered Virginia voters from Monday through Wednesday.

The 3-point margin for McCain is the same advantage he held more than one week ago when he led Obama by a margin of 47 percent to 44 percent.

The candidates are running neck and neck at 45 percent each among those who identify themselves as independents.

Voters were interviewed statewide with tallies made in six regions: Northern Virginia, Shenandoah/Piedmont, Richmond Metro, Hampton Roads, Lynchburg/Southside and Roanoke/Southwest. 

Voters in only one of the six regions, Northern Virginia, favored Obama over McCain, and that was by a substantial margin of 57 percent to 37 percent, with 7 percent undecided.

“I’m hearing conflicting reports, but as I understand it, voter registration is up more than 20 percent in Northern Virginia – a region where the population continues to increase,” Lane said. “In the 2004 general election, the 9th District, which we can consider Southwest Virginia, had 258,000 votes. But Northern Virginia had more than 600,000. That was four years ago. Again, the numbers may show McCain will win Southwest Virginia. But the question is, will that be enough?” 

Although Obama holds a strong lead in Northern Virginia, McCain has wide margins in the Richmond/Metro area and Virginia’s rural regions. The race remains tight in the Hampton Roads/Tidewater region.

“In 2004, rural voters won Virginia for George W. Bush, and I’m sure Obama has that in mind,” said Sara Combs, Virginia Highlands Community College associate professor of history and political science. “I believe he feels he can win Virginia with the help of this part of the state, and I think his strategy of making a number of appearances here will increase those chances. Frankly, it’s absolutely stunning that an African-American Democrat is in a virtual tie with a Republican candidate in Virginia.” 

Meanwhile, the poll also shows that the economy is clearly the most important issue to voters, with 69 percent of those polled saying it was their main concern.

In addition, 53 percent of those polled supported government intervention to help resolve the current problems in the credit and financial markets, and 58 percent revealed they were relatively confident that government intervention would improve the economy over the long term.

Three categories distinctly stand out when it comes to voter polarization: sex, age and race.

Men, whites and older voters in the poll sided with McCain, while women, blacks and younger voters favored Obama.

“I think that’s because Republicans represent a party with older individuals who are interested in reducing taxes and are in favor of a strong military,” Combs said. “Younger people are more interested in education issues, social services and federal support. And women have traditionally gone with the Democratic ticket.” 

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research in Washington, D.C. The 625 registered voters interviewed indicated there were likely to vote in the November general election.

The margin of error, according to customary standards used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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