Mason-Dixon Poll shows leads in lieutenant governor, attorney general races for GOP

By Mac Mclean
Published: October 31, 2009

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Just days before Tuesday’s general election, Republicans are enjoying hefty leads in their bids to be Virginia’s next lieutenant governor and attorney general, reveals a voter poll released Friday.

The Republican candidates also are favored by men, by at least 23 points, while women are more evenly split between the two parties’ candidates in both races.

Undecided voters remain a critical factor, however. Based on calls placed to likely voters Oct. 28-29, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four points. And across the state and in each of the six regions polled, those who haven’t made a decision in the two races range from a low of 18 percent to as high as 25 percent.

Conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. for the Bristol Herald Courier and other Media General newspapers, the poll shows Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling with a 13-point lead over Democrat Jody Wagner among voters statewide. In the Roanoke-Southwest Virginia region that includes Bristol and Washington County, Bolling’s lead is 11 points ahead of his opponent.

Those results mirror a Mason-Dixon poll released Oct. 11, which showed Bolling had a 13-point lead among the state’s voters and a 14-point lead in the Roanoke-Southwest Virginia region.
Bolling also is leading his opponent in every other region of the state analyzed in Friday’s poll.

He has an 10-point lead among voters in Hampton Roads; an 18-point lead among Lynchburg-Southside Virginia voters, and those in Richmond; a 28-point lead in the Shenandoah Valley-Piedmont region; and a 3-point lead in Northern Virginia.

Earlier this month, Bolling led in every region of the state except for Northern Virginia, where he and Wagner were tied.

Bolling’s GOP counterpart in the state attorney general’s race, Ken Cuccinelli, is doing equally well in his race against Democrat Steve Shannon according to Friday’s poll. Cuccinelli has a 24-point lead over Shannon among the Roanoke-Southwest Virginia voters and a 14-point lead among voters across the state.

That statewide number doubles his lead from the Oct. 11 poll, and broadens the distance from his challenger by another 10 points in Roanoke-Southwest Virginia.

The more recent results have Cuccinelli leading in all regions of the state except Northern Virginia, where Shannon has a 3-point lead.

While the Republican leads are substantial, in several cases the number of undecided voters is considerably higher than the difference between the two candidates. That’s true for the lieutenant governor’s race in Roanoke-Southwest Virginia, the attorney general’s race in Northern Virginia, and both races statewide.

According to the poll, 23 percent of voters in Roanoke-Southwest Virginia were still undecided about their choice for lieutenant governor.

Statewide, the poll’s results show that 19 percent of the voters surveyed were undecided in the lieutenant governor’s race and 22 percent were undecided about their picks in the attorney general’s race.

gmclean@bristolnews.com | (276) 645-2518