After looking at the Tri-Cities’ most recent retail sales estimates, one local economist said the region remains in the midst of a recession that’s plagued the U.S. since late 2007.
Tri-Cities area retailers reported $1.48 billion worth of sales during this year’s third quarter, July 1 to Sept. 30, East Tennessee State University professor of economics Steb Hipple wrote in his quarterly Tri-Cities Retail Sales Report that was released Monday.
Though this figure shows a slight increase in sales from the two previous quarters and signals the economy may not be getting any worse, Hipple said, it also is still well below last year’s figures and signals things might not improve any time soon.
“The bottom line is that the recession is still here,” Hipple said in his report. “It will be early 2010 before all the positive elements are in place and the long-awaited economic recovery will finally begin.”
According to Hipple’s report, the region’s overall third quarter retail sales were about $24 million higher than this year’s April to June period and $120 million more than this year’s first quarter, which ended March 30.
The same pattern of slight quarter-to-quarter increases also exist in the Twin City. According to the report, businesses in Bristol, Va., and Bristol, Tenn., had combined retail sales of $269 million during this year’s third quarter, $246 million for the second quarter and $239 million for the first quarter.
In both the region’s overall numbers and the figures from the two Bristols, the retail sales numbers are lower than last year.
During 2008, the Tri-Cities region’s overall retail sales were $1.47 billion for the first quarter, $1.57 billion for the second quarter and $1.56 million for the third quarter.
The two Bristols recorded $272 million in sales during the first quarter of 2008, $256 million for the second quarter and $281 million for the third quarter.
In the analysis, Hipple said the slumping retail sales and a continuing decline in payroll employment – both of which have been seen across the country – contradict claims that the recession ended this summer when the U.S. gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2 percent.
“We’re not out of the woods quite yet,” Hipple said in his report.
The region’s economy won’t truly recover until the country starts to recover, and when this happens, it will likely be a “weak recovery with high unemployment lingering into 2011,” he said.
gmclean@bristolnews.com | (276) 645-2518
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