Expect budget pains for education in Virginia

The day of financial reckoning is upon us. In fact, expect it to arrive next Friday when Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine delivers his final biennial budget to the General Assembly.

We acknowledge that it’s a quirky system – the outgoing governor presents a two-year budget as the new governor comes into office. And we know Gov.-Elect Bob McDonnell, who takes office in January, can press and mold and push for the changes he wants. But a $3.7 billion shortfall is a chasm no matter how anyone looks at it.

Here’s what we see: K-12 education will be the biggest loser. After two years of recession and $7 billion in cuts, it’s the long protected place where cuts will now occur.

During a conference call with this newspaper’s editorial board on Wednesday, Kaine acknowledged that the budget to be released next week will be austere, tough and include cuts that many Virginians will not like. Kaine was not specific, but alluded to possible cuts in K-12 education and reversing previous cuts to car tax relief. Don’t look for any car tax changes to stick – days ago McDonnell has said he would not support reversing the cuts and other Republicans are expected to support him on this.

Kaine, on Wednesday, asserted his pledge to maintain the state’s AAA bond rating, core services for citizens and to keep Virginia positioned so it will be at “the front of the pack” to come out of the recession. He noted that $7 billion has already been cut from the state budget in the past two years, a result of a decline of the economy since 2007.

Every obvious and easy place has already been trimmed, along with many places that weren’t very obvious or easy.

Kaine stressed that across the board cuts were never an option – “this is not a math exercise, it’s a judgment exercise” – and that every program has performance data to determine correlating cuts.

Federal stimulus funds eased the sting during last year’s budget cycle – effectively plugging Virginia’s huge gaps for education and Medicaid spending. Next week there will be no such safeguard. And as we warned months ago, the most difficult budget decisions will come in 2010 once the federal stimulus money is out of the equation and every other state need has continued to grow.

Virginia legislators must revisit a plan to raise the cigarette tax for Medicaid needs, particularly since so many of the growing costs are smoking related. Many House Republicans have refused this effort, but Medicaid costs are exploding and this logical option must be considered next year.
State Sen. William Wampler, R-Bristol, warned localities that tougher times are ahead and echoed Kaine’s prediction that this round of cuts will have widespread impact.

“We’ve been telling the localities this day will come,” Wampler said. “K-12 education is the only category that has not experienced big reductions, but it may not escape this.”

Kaine deserves praise for successfully managing Virginia through the worst economy in 60 years, but we fear even more difficult times lie ahead.
In the short run, don’t be surprised to see benefits curtailed, more worker furloughs or state jobs cut before things really get better in Virginia. But that grim work, if deemed necessary, will be left to McDonnell.

While McDonnell has the overwhelming support of Virginia’s business community, many businesses are limping after a protracted recession. Business leaders always need well-educated employees to take the jobs of the future, but out-of-work taxpayers can’t pay increased costs for education.

Welcome to the job, Mr. Governor-Elect.