ANDREA HOPKINS: Ignoring Peak Oil Theories Could Leave Nation Stuck In Neutral

The message had an urgent tone – punctuated with exclamation points, some of it in bold type and in all capital letters.

It was the e-mail equivalent of a shout.

“Cut gas prices NOW!” it yelled. “Gas prices are now over $4 per gallon nationwide – and we now know that Congress is the cause.”

WELL, NOT all of Congress; just House Democrats. According to the folks at RightMarch.com, these evil Democrats actually are giddy with joy that gasoline prices continue to climb – wrecking household budgets and disproportionately harming the weakest members of society.

The solution that RightMarch, which bills itself as “the Rapid Response Force against the ongoing liberal onslaught,” is selling is the same one that House Republicans, including our very own Rep. David Davis, are touting. They want to drill like there’s no tomorrow, sucking every drop of oil from the ground with nary a thought about saving this precious resource for future generations. Conservationists and wildlife receive similar short shrift.

The centerpiece of the oh-so-cleverly-named “No More Excuses Act” is drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (often shortened to ANWR) and off the U.S. coast.

Apparently, mere passage of the “No More Excuses Act” is supposed to magically cause the gas-price fever to break. Prices would then begin to recede. RightMarch offers no explanation for how this magical transformation would come about.

THEY DON’T offer one because it doesn’t exist. Most economists and honest politicians believe no single factor is to blame for the sickening spike in gas prices. Rather, it appears to be an unlucky confluence of factors that is to blame.

Demand for gasoline is soaring, particularly in India and China where many people have moved from poverty to something bordering on prosperity in recent years. They want the same modern conveniences that Americans have enjoyed for years.

Like an only child who suddenly becomes a big brother or sister, America is going to have to learn to share. This can be a painful transition.

At the same time that demand is climbing, oil production is plateauing or in some cases declining. Department of Energy reports indicate production has declined in major oilfields in Russia, Mexico and the North Sea. That isn’t good news for an increasingly energy-thirsty world.

WELCOME TO the world of peak oil. This was once the realm of fringe Doomsday theorists on the Internet, but it is now openly discussed on the Web site of The Wall Street Journal.

The Journal’s Keith Johnson writes, “The ugly truth? Peak oil isn’t fringe anymore – it’s going mainstream. That’s the reading from the latest oil market report from the International Energy Agency, the rich-country energy watchdog. ...

“The fact that there are no growing stockpiles of crude around the world, for example, suggests speculators aren’t behind crude’s dizzying rise this year (much to Paul Krugman’s satisfaction and Congress’ chagrin.) ...

“And while U.S. drivers fret and worry over how to pay for the Prius, the sad truth is that it doesn’t matter: By 2015, developing country oil demand will outstrip the rich world’s. They’re already in the driver’s seat: 90 percent of the demand growth over the next five years will come from Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, the IEA said.”

Get ready for a long, bumpy ride that no amount of political posturing or finger-pointing can fix. How well the nation deals with the bumps and adapts to an expensive energy world will determine whether we come to a gentle, safe stop or crash.

THIS ISN’T meant to minimize the pain that high gas prices are inflicting on the nation’s psyche and economy. We just returned from a 2,500-mile road trip to visit my husband’s family in Northern Michigan. As we enjoyed the warm embrace of distant family, it was painful to think that such a trip might become cost prohibitive.

Is seeing one’s family a luxury or a necessity? For most of us, it’s the latter.

We live in a mobile society where many of us have moved far from home in search of employment or fulfillment. An expensive-energy world will make it much harder to fly or drive to visit family even once a year.

But while the middle class worries about going home for the holidays, the poor have it much worse. This newspaper carried an Associated Press report last week about Meals on Wheels programs that are struggling to cope with high fuel costs and still deliver needed nourishment to the elderly poor.

USA Today, meanwhile, reported that high gas prices are hitting rural areas in a disproportionate manner. In some parts of Tennessee and Kentucky, residents are spending more than 10 percent of their household budgets on fuel. Around Bristol, that figure is between 5 and 8 percent. Urban areas with mass transit systems are generally fairing better.

SO FAR, a solution to the problem remains elusive. But even the government’s own reports don’t indicate that opening ANWR and the Outer Continental Shelf to drilling will result in an immediate or substantial drop in the price of oil.

In fact, a Department of Energy report indicates that ANWR drilling won’t affect prices at all. And deep-water drilling involves considerable cost and risk; it isn’t a cheap way to get oil.

It might be time to adjust our standard of living to cope with permanently higher energy prices. Or we could join RightMarch and push a simple, politically motivated solution for a complex problem.

Some additional drilling might have merit, but don’t expect it to bring down prices. There are too many other factors involved – chief among them, the law of supply-and-demand.

Andrea Hopkins is opinion editor of the Bristol Herald Courier. She may be reached at ahopkins@bristolnews.com or (276) 645-2534.